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一定要保持多样化，尤其是在你不知道自己在做什么时！
In the words of famed e conomist John Maynard Keynes, diversification is insurance against ignorance.
著名经济学家John Maynard Keynes说过多样化是战胜无知的保证。
He believed that risk could actually be reduced by holding fewer investments and getting to know them extraordinarily well.
他相信少做几种投资并且非常了解这些投资真的能降低风险。
Of course, the man was one of the most brilliant financial minds of the past century so this philosophy isn't sound policy for most investors, especially if they can't analyze financial statements or don't know the difference between the Dow Jones Industrial Average and a Dodo.
当然他是过去一个世纪中最杰出的金融人才之一，所以这种说法对于大多数投资者来说听起来并不是明智的选择，尤其是有些人并不能分析财务报表或不知道道琼斯工业平均指数和Dodo之间差别。
These days, widespread diversification can be had at a fraction of the cost of what was possible even a few decades ago. With index funds, mutual funds, and dividend reinvestment programs, the frictional expenses of owning shares in hundreds of different companies have largely been eliminated or, at the very least, substantially reduced.
现在即使只赚到几十年前能赚到的钱数你就能利用日益普遍的多样化的方法。随着指数基金、共同基金和股息再投资计划的兴起，拥有数百家不同公司股份的摩擦费用已经被大大消除了，或者至少大幅下降了。
This can help protect you against permanent loss by spreading your assets out over enough companies that if one or even a few of them go belly-up, you won't be harmed.
这可以保护你免受不可逆的损失，把你的资产分散到足够多的公司中，如果其中一家甚至几家公司破产，你也不会遭受损失。
In fact, due to a phenomenon is known as the mathematics of diversification, it will probably result in higher overall compounding returns on a risk-adjusted basis.
其实由于多样化数学现象的存在，很有可能会在风险调整的基础上产生更高的综合复利。
One thing you want to watch for is correlation. Specifically, you want to look for uncorrelated risks so that your holdings are constantly offsetting each other to even out economic and business cycles.
你要注意的就是关联问题，具体来说就是你想要找到没有关联的风险，以便你所持的股票总能彼此补偿，在经济和商业周期内持平。
When I first wrote the predecessor to this piece almost fifteen years ago, I warned that it wasn't enough to own thirty different stocks if half of them consisted of Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, U.S. Bank, Fifth Third Bancorp, et cetera, because you may have owned a lot of shares in several different companies but you were not diversified; that a "systematic shock such as massive real estate loan failure could send shockwaves through the banking system, effectively hurting all of your positions", which is precisely what happened during the 2007-2009 collapse.
差不多在15年前我第一次写下这个方法的上一个版本时就警告过，如果你持有的股票中有一半是美洲银行、摩根大通、富国银行、美国合众银行、五三银行这样的股票的话，那你拥有30家不同的股票都不够，因为你可能在不同的公司拥有大量股份，但并没有做到多样化，而且像大规模房地产贷款失败这样的系统冲击会给整个银行系统带来冲击，实际上你所有的股票都会遭受损失，2007-2009年金融危机期间就发生了这样的事。
Of course, the stronger firms such as U.S. Bancorp and Wells Fargo and Company did just fine despite a period when they had declined 80% on paper peak-to-trough, especially if you reinvested your dividends and were dollar cost averaging into them; a reminder that it's often better to focus on strength first and foremost.
当然美国合众银行和富国银行这样更强一些的公司，也有过从表面上看从高峰期到低谷期下跌了80%的时期。但尤其是当你要重新投资股利并按购入证券的美元价格平均计算时，它们确实是不错的选择。还要提醒你一下，最好首要关注一下公司实力。
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